When will mirrorless completely replace DSLRs?

[NHKeith]

This article shows mirrorless sales are an increasing proportion of interchangeable lens camera sales: https://photographylife.com/are-mirrorless-sales-really-growing/

 

I am convinced that mirrorless cameras will eventually completely replace DSLRs. The only real difference is having a mirror with optical viewfinder or an EVF because every other capability of a DSLR can be put on a mirrorless camera, The mirror adds complexity and size and also compromises the lens design by needing free space in front of the sensor. Any advantage of an optical viewfinder will go away as EVF technology improves.

 

I would define the end of DSLRs as when the big vendors (Nikon and Canon) have a mirrorless camera as their most sophisticated pro model. There was a similar transition point in the move from film to DSLR. When do you think that will occur?

[erwiurewurwehu]

No idea when it will happen but computing power tends to win over hardware so I think mirrorless will take over in the next few years. However, I think mirrorless cameras will also be replaced by other devices like phones.

[Haswell]

I can't imagine them putting the equivalent of a 100-400 on a phone. Sports shooters will say that nothing can replace the DSLR. But I beg to differ.

[johant]

I don't know, and I don't really care; every tool has its place.

 

I guess both types of camera will keep evolving for quite some time.

Edited April 16, 2017 by johant

[Aswald]

Meanwhile, I'm enjoying both formats.  

[flysurfer]

It will happen around 2020: Tokyo Summer Olympics feature the global shutter in mass market cameras --> end of DSLR technology as mass market technology. DSLR hybrid cameras will probably continue to exist in the high-price segment (Canon EOS 1X Mk3?).

[Guest mikEm13]

With all of the information that I have obtained I believe it will be April 1, 2019

[Steve Lew]

Actually smart phones with increasingly better lenses are the fastest growing segment in photography. I certainly would not advocate the smart phone over DSLRs or mirrorless cameras. I think that there will always be a place for DSLRs, mirrorless medium format. I really do not believe that mirrorless camera will take over DSLRs but rather the trend will continue for older users to lessen their load and switch to mirrorless as well as picking up some newbies.

[F_J_Woods]

When mirrorless can rival DSLRs as pertains to battery usage.

[Guest Him]

I don't know, and I don't really care; every tool has its place.

 

I guess both types of camera will keep evolving for quite some time.

 

Neither do I. It's all rigged anyway, film is back, vinyl is back - maybe cd's will die a death - I am past caring. Will DSLR's die, I doubt it anytime soon.

[Guest Him]

When mirrorless can rival DSLRs as pertains to battery usage.

Perhaps not even then. If one thinks of the market as a whole. Film is back, Vinyl is back - all of these possibilities and so to me whether mirrorless kills off DSLR's is irrelevant as I believe it won't happen for ages and both will be in the market. Just like CD's, Tape, Vinyl, Downloads - Film, SD Cards.

[Woodworth]

When I started as a professional photographer we used film (remember that?), I had a 35mm outfit, a medium format outfit and a 5x4 outfit. Camera bags were heavy (Hasselblad, 3 lenses, 2 backs and a Metz flash is no lightweight option!). It took time to develop film in smelly chemicals and "spotting" prints was a necessary pain. Long print runs (say 100 prints of the same picture) meant careful monitoring of the developer and retouching was an expensive luxury. Then came the DSLR - wow! It was amazing because it made life easier, faster, lighter and altogether more efficient. Some had to be dragged kicking and screaming away from their film cameras - seeing any similarities here? Now film is mostly for bearded hipsters and a few students it seems.

 

A lot of us humans are slow to adapt to change. Many are comfortable with the familiar. I think that perhaps there will always be a small market for the DSLR, after all, the Victorian painter Paul Delaroche famously cried “At this moment, painting is dead” when he realised the potential of photography and yet we still have people buying paint and canvases today. Anyone seen a cheap Picasso for sale? There may be fields where the DSLR is better for some reason for a while at least.

 

For me the present and indeed the future is mirrorless. Now that the likes of Nikon and Canon have finally awoken from their slumber and are taking mirrorless a bit more seriously, the end may well be nigh. Their rumoured full frame cameras will set the date (dependent on their sales), but I think that just like the TLR camera was succeeded by the SLR, the DSLR will be succeeded by the mirrorless. The date that perhaps the DSLRs will rest in peace may be pretty soon, maybe 2020? I think that  Paul Delaroche (if he was still around) might then say “At this moment, the DSLR is dead”.

[Guest Him]

Chris, what do you think will usurp the mirrorless? 

[quincy]

I know you didn't ask me, but: the shutterless

[Guest Him]

I know you didn't ask me, but: the shutterless

 

Indeed we are on a treadmill ever since things went digital.......

[KateB]

Chris, what do you think will usurp the mirrorless?

 

I saw a multilens camera recently. I think the idea has potential.

[Woodworth]

Chris, what do you think will usurp the mirrorless? 

 

Now, that's a question!

 

For as long as we want interchangeable lens cameras there will need to be both camera and lens. Quite what kind of camera and by what means the image is viewed and captured is difficult to predict. The advantage of our current mirrorless designs is the absence of a mirror box enabling better optical design and so higher quality lenses, very much like the Leica M lenses. The trouble with Leica M cameras was the viewing of the image, this has been effectively solved with electronic viewfinders. So perhaps the basic mirrorless concept is pretty much as good as it will get. Minor improvements to the basic concept, better AF, improved ergonomics, etc but nothing revolutionary. Where I think the next step will come will be with the sensor. There are curved sensors in the pipeline and these will probably become commonplace in time. Perhaps the kind of sensor will change, after all we have had the same basic concepts (albeit with improvements) for some time now. CCD, CMOS etc are very much yesterday's technology, so will there be something with better colour, higher resolution or greater dynamic range - who knows?

 

Whatever it is, there will be a group of people who will hate it and desperately cling onto their mirrorless camera!

Edited October 21, 2017 by Woodworth

[BobJ]

Looks like it will be happening soon judging by Sony's two new offerings.

[ullmandds]

question is when will phones replace mirrorless!!

[Steve Lew]

A member from another forum that I belong to shared the latest statistics from for cameras types that were used to input to Flickr for 2017. These stats are:

 

Smart Phones up to 50% up from 48% in 2016

 

DSLR's 33% up from 25% in 2016

 

Mirrorless cameras 4% for the third year in a row

 

While these numbers appeared to be from an official publication for Flickr they seem to be too skewed to Smartphones and especially DSLR's. Finally, perhaps mirrorless cameras represented only 4% three years ago but this number, while still relatively low, should have risen during the past two years.